0%
Consumer prices remained higher than a year earlier, June 20261
4 in 10
U.S. consumers now classified as structural “value seekers”3
0%
U.S. consumers used an AI tool for shopping in the past month6
0%
Want AI to act as a co-pilot, not a full autopilot7

Executive summary

Coupons and offers have traditionally been treated as promotional tools — owned by merchandising, loyalty, trade marketing, partnerships, or customer acquisition teams, and measured primarily through distribution, activation, and redemption. That model understates their strategic value.

Consumers are operating in an environment where prices remain materially higher than they were several years ago, confidence is uneven, and value-seeking behavior is becoming structural across income levels. At the same time, consumers are beginning to use AI assistants to compare products, evaluate trade-offs, and identify better prices and benefits.

The objective is not to serve more coupons. It is to build a scalable system that determines which value is relevant, who should fund it, how it should be distributed, whether it changed behavior, and how the resulting economics should be shared.

Key takeaways

  • 1Value-seeking is structural, not cyclical — nearly seven in ten retail executives see it as a lasting shift, not an inflation blip.
  • 2AI is entering the decision journey — but as a co-pilot for comparison, not yet an autopilot for purchasing.
  • 3Offers are under-monetized media — high-intent surfaces behave like scarce, dynamic inventory, not static service pages.
  • 4Separate the incentive from the media — commingling the discount, the distribution, and the outcome hides where margin and risk sit.
  • 5Redemption isn’t proof — durable programs measure incrementality, not activation alone.
01
1
Section 01

Context

Consumers are actively seeking better value

Consumers experience the absolute level of prices, not simply the rate at which prices are changing. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June 2026 Consumer Price Index release, consumer prices remained 3.5% higher than a year earlier, while prices excluding food and energy were 2.6% higher.1

Consumer expectations also remain unsettled. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s June 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations found that one-year inflation expectations had increased to 3.7%, their highest level since September 2023. Consumers became somewhat more optimistic about their future household finances during June, but expectations for future credit access deteriorated slightly.2

This environment is contributing to a broader change in how consumers shop. Deloitte’s 2026 Retail Industry Outlook classifies four in ten U.S. consumers as value seekers — consumers who consistently make deal-driven choices, switch brands or channels, trade convenience for savings, or use multiple tactics to reduce the cost of a purchase. Nearly seven in ten retail executives surveyed by Deloitte believe these behaviors represent a structural market shift rather than a temporary reaction to inflation.3

Value-seeking behavior is also not limited to lower-income consumers. Deloitte’s 2026 Consumer Products Outlook found that 47% of consumers globally qualify as value seekers, including 35% of high-income households.4

Value does not necessarily mean choosing the cheapest option. It means making a more deliberate decision across price, quality, convenience, loyalty, flexibility, rewards, and risk.

Deloitte’s 2026 Back-to-School Survey illustrates this dynamic: consumers classified as highly value-oriented expected to spend more per child than other shoppers, and their use of coupons, promotions, search, social media, and generative AI reflected more active planning, not simply financial retrenchment.5

The value economy is therefore not only about reducing demand. It is about helping consumers allocate demand more intelligently.

Deal discovery remains unnecessarily fragmented

Consumers often have to leave the primary commerce experience to find value. They search coupon sites, check loyalty accounts, open promotional emails, compare several merchant tabs, enter discount codes, review card-linked benefits, or wait for known sales events. The customer must assemble the final economic picture across multiple disconnected systems.

This creates friction for the consumer and leakage for the commerce operator. A customer may begin on one platform, discover the relevant promotion somewhere else, and ultimately complete the transaction through a third party. The commerce operator that originally created the demand may receive neither the transaction nor the monetization associated with influencing it.

Integrating offers into the core journey can reduce this leakage. Savings, rewards, cashback, upgrades, and merchant-funded benefits can become part of search, browse, consideration, checkout, post-purchase, loyalty, and re-engagement experiences. The offer then becomes part of the product experience rather than an external promotional layer.

AI is becoming part of the value-discovery process

The growth of generative AI and LLM-based shopping tools adds another dimension. NielsenIQ reported in May 2026 that 42% of U.S. consumers had used at least one AI tool for shopping during the previous month, using these tools to compare products, evaluate alternatives, narrow their choices, and identify better prices or discounts.6

Koddi’s research found a similar pattern. Consumers are open to AI supporting research, comparisons, filtering, and recommendations, but they remain cautious about allowing it to complete consequential purchases without approval. Seventy-five percent of U.S. consumers, 68% of UK consumers, and 59% of German consumers said they were comfortable with AI helping them choose what to buy or book. Only 32% had ever allowed a service to automatically complete a purchase or booking outside basic subscription models, and 72% agreed that they wanted AI to act as a co-pilot rather than a full autopilot.7

The immediate change is therefore not fully autonomous purchasing. It is AI-assisted decision-making. Consumers will increasingly ask an AI system to find the best available option based on total value — a calculation that may include price, loyalty rewards, discounts, cashback, flexibility, delivery, upgrades, cancellation terms, and expected quality.

Offers are natural inputs into that decision. But most offer programs are not structured for AI discovery. Terms are often contained in creative assets, campaign notes, legal language, loyalty systems, merchant feeds, or settlement platforms. A person may be able to interpret the offer, but an AI system may not be able to determine whether it is current, funded, relevant, and valid for a particular customer. This creates a new requirement: offers must become both customer-friendly and machine-readable.

AI & the value-seeking consumer

0%
of U.S. consumers are comfortable with AI helping them choose what to buy or book7
0%
have ever let a service automatically complete a purchase outside basic subscriptions7
0%
of consumers globally qualify as value seekers, including 35% of high-income households4
02
2
Section 02

The Opportunity

Offers can become an intelligent value layer

Commerce operators have several advantages over conventional coupon distributors and media publishers. They understand what the customer is currently searching for, viewing, comparing, booking, purchasing, or adding to a cart. They own moments of high commercial intent. And they can often observe whether a customer ultimately completes a transaction.

This allows the commerce operator to create value for several participants at once. The customer receives a more relevant economic benefit with less work. The advertiser gains a measurable way to influence acquisition, conversion, basket size, product trial, or repeat behavior. The commerce operator can generate media and performance revenue while improving customer satisfaction, loyalty, and conversion.

These advantages become especially powerful when offers are integrated with commerce media. Commerce media determines which offers receive visibility, which customers are eligible, which moments are most valuable, and how advertisers compete for distribution. Closed-loop commerce data then determines whether the offer led to an activation, purchase, booking, or incremental outcome. The offer itself makes the media more actionable. The media makes the offer more discoverable. The combination creates a more valuable product than either component on its own.

High-intent offer surfaces are monetizable inventory

Coupon, savings, promotion, and curated-deal experiences are often treated as service pages rather than media inventory. That is a mistake. Customers visiting these surfaces are explicitly looking for economic value. Their intent is clear, and their behavior is often predictable around promotional refreshes, seasonal events, pay cycles, and category-specific shopping patterns.

In many retail environments, coupon and curated-placement traffic increased consistently around the weekly promotional changeover — a pattern that affected platform volume, forecasting, traffic analysis, and commercial economics. This illustrates that coupon inventory is dynamic. It has recurring traffic patterns, scarce premium positions, category competition, advertiser demand, and measurable downstream behavior.

A commerce operator can monetize this inventory through sponsored placement, boosted distribution, fixed promotional packages, auctions, or performance pricing. But monetization must preserve the experience’s utility — a high-paying offer that is irrelevant or unavailable cannot be allowed to undermine customer trust.

Offer networks can extend beyond owned properties

A second opportunity is to distribute offers across a broader network of publishers, partners, and buying platforms. Advertiser and agency demand can enter through a standardized intake process. Campaigns can be made available through DSP deal identifiers. The commerce operator can retain control over offer creative and customer presentation. Reporting can connect impressions and clicks with bookings and revenue.

Sponsored listings and offer-funded placements can then extend across additional publishers while the platform controls targeting, publisher permissions, reporting, and information visibility. This creates an offer marketplace rather than a simple offsite campaign — connecting advertiser demand, funded consumer value, differentiated publisher inventory, first-party commerce signals, and closed-loop transaction reporting.

As the network expands, the commercial value grows. But so does the need for consistent targeting, creative standards, settlement, attribution, and publisher governance.

Agent-ready offers create a future distribution channel

The next opportunity is inclusion in AI-mediated decision environments. An AI assistant helping a consumer select a product, hotel, restaurant, or service needs to understand the real economic value of each alternative — current information about eligibility, funding, expiration, restrictions, expected benefit, and final customer cost.

Commerce operators that can expose this information in a reliable and structured form can remain part of the decision journey even when the consumer begins that journey inside an LLM or another agent interface. The strategic inventory is no longer limited to an impression on a webpage. It may include whether an offer is eligible for consideration, included in a comparison, recommended to a customer, activated through an agent, or selected as part of a transaction.

Commerce media is moving from monetizing surfaces and placements toward monetizing access, influence, and measurable outcomes within decision systems.

Koddi has described this wider transition in What Agentic Commerce Means for Commerce Media.8 Offers are particularly well suited to that shift because they provide explicit and quantifiable customer value.

03
3
Section 03

Better Together

Separate the incentive, distribution, and outcome

The fundamental operating principle is that offers and media should work together without being commercially collapsed into a single product. The customer may experience one integrated offer, but the business should recognize several distinct economic components.

Economic componentWhat it fundsTypical commercial source
Customer incentiveThe discount, cashback, reward, upgrade, or other consumer benefitMerchant, brand, destination, financial institution, loyalty program, or platform
Paid distributionAccess to an audience, placement, context, or decision environmentAdvertising, shopper marketing, trade, or acquisition budget
Measured outcomeAn activation, redemption, order, booking, acquisition, or incremental transactionPerformance or customer-acquisition budget
Platform operationTechnology, integrations, campaign management, reporting, and settlementPlatform, technology, or managed-service fee

The four economic components of an offer program. A single customer-facing offer can — and should — be underwritten by several distinct sources.

An advertiser that funds a $10 customer discount has paid for the customer benefit. It has not necessarily paid for premium placement, targeting, creative production, lifecycle distribution, DSP activation, measurement, access to partner publishers, or platform services.

Separating these components allows the commerce operator to understand where margin is created, where financial risk sits, and which part of the program is driving performance. It also helps resolve organizational conflict: an offer can be simultaneously a merchandising program, a customer benefit, and a media product, as long as ownership and economics are explicit.

Build the commercial model around the objective

Different offer objectives require different pricing structures. A sponsored coupon placement may be sold using a fixed fee, CPM, CPC, or auction. A customer-acquisition offer may combine an advertiser-funded incentive with paid media and a fee for each new customer. A closed-loop booking offer may include media, a platform fee, and a commission tied to the transaction.

Co-funded programs may be appropriate when a destination, commerce operator, or strategic partner wants to stimulate a particular category or market. These programs can accelerate adoption but should not create a permanent expectation that the platform will subsidize advertiser participation.

Network distribution may introduce separate fees for platform access, publisher distribution, managed service, media, and performance. The commercial documentation should show which party funds each component and how revenue is shared. The cleanest initial structure generally includes an advertiser-funded incentive budget, a media or distribution fee, a platform or service fee, and an optional performance fee — while the customer-facing experience remains simple even when the underlying economics are separated.

Manage offers as dynamic inventory

Offer supply is constrained by more than available impressions. It depends on active funding, eligible products, merchant participation, geography, customer qualification, promotional calendars, redemption caps, inventory availability, expiration, settlement rules, and cancellation or return behavior.

Offer demand is also time-sensitive. Grocery interest may rise during a weekly promotional reset. Travel offers may become more valuable for certain destinations, booking windows, or check-in dates. Dining offers may be most valuable during low-demand periods. Post-purchase offers depend on the customer’s recent transaction and likely next need.

The offer platform must therefore support forecasting, pacing, eligibility, expiration, frequency management, availability checks, and yield optimization — knowing not only how many opportunities are available but which are scarce, which customers are likely to respond, which offers are approaching their funding limits, and which outcomes create incremental value.

Rank for total value rather than the highest payment

The highest-paying offer is not always the best offer to show.

It may be irrelevant to the customer, financially unattractive after the incentive, no longer available, or less likely to produce a valuable outcome than another candidate.

Ranking offers according to total expected value is generally the most efficient model. That value can incorporate media revenue, performance revenue, incremental contribution, customer savings, relevance, expected conversion, merchant capacity, remaining funding, and long-term customer value. It should also account for costs and risks, including the incentive expense, cannibalization, fraud, customer fatigue, and damage to trust.

The weighting will differ by commerce operator. A grocery retailer may prioritize category growth and supplier economics. A travel platform may prioritize destination demand, occupancy, booking value, or trip relevance. A financial institution may prioritize card engagement and merchant-funded value. The objective must be explicit — otherwise, merchandising, media, loyalty, product, and finance teams will each optimize toward a different result.

Establish a shared offer operating system

A scalable program needs a consistent source of truth for offer definition, eligibility, funding, creative, distribution, redemption, and measurement. The system should support advertiser and merchant intake, validate whether an offer can be fulfilled, and normalize terms into a structure that works across channels. The commerce operator should retain control over the customer-facing experience, even when an advertiser or partner funds the offer.

Eligibility should be treated as more than advertising targeting — it must determine whether a particular customer can actually receive the benefit. Distribution should be supported across owned inventory, lifecycle messaging, DSPs, partner publishers, conversational interfaces, and agent APIs without creating separate and inconsistent versions of the offer.

The platform must also maintain real-time status. An offer should not be recommended if it has expired, exhausted its budget, become unavailable, or no longer applies to the customer. Redemption and settlement should distinguish among an impression, click, save, activation, redemption, settled transaction, cancellation, reversal, and refund — separate events with different implications for reporting and payment.

Make offers ready for AI discovery

An agent-ready offer needs a clear and structured description of the customer benefit, eligibility, applicable product or merchant, activation requirements, dates, funding status, limitations, and expected final cost.

The system should be able to answer a practical set of questions in real time. Is the customer eligible? Is the offer still active? What is the economic value? Can it be combined with another benefit? Is the recommendation sponsored? What action must the customer take? How will the resulting transaction be measured?

This capability allows commerce operators to participate in AI-assisted shopping without surrendering control of the offer, the customer promise, or the commercial relationship. Commercial influence must remain transparent — advertisers can pay to compete for consideration, but the system should not represent a commercially preferred offer as objectively superior when it provides less value to the customer. Consumer trust will depend on the difference between sponsored distribution and truthful recommendation remaining clear.

Measure incrementality, not redemption alone

A redemption confirms that an offer was used. It does not prove that the offer caused the purchase.

A customer may redeem an offer against a transaction they already intended to complete. An offer may move a purchase between merchants without creating new category demand. A large incentive may increase gross sales while reducing contribution margin. The key question is what the customer would have done without the offer.

The IAB Guidelines for Incremental Measurement in Commerce Media emphasize the importance of credible counterfactuals, experimental design, bias controls, and a clear separation between attributed outcomes and incremental outcomes.9

Commerce operators should begin with accurate delivery, activation, redemption, and transaction reporting. Over time, they should add randomized holdouts, matched cohorts, geographic experiments, incentive-level testing, and contribution-margin analysis. One particularly useful design compares customers who receive no offer, customers who receive the offer organically, customers who receive paid premium distribution, and customers who receive a different incentive amount — separating the value created by the incentive from the value created by the media.

04
4
Section 04

How Koddi Helps

Define the operating and commercial model

Koddi can help a commerce operator define what an offer means within its customer journey and economic model. This includes determining which incentives should be supported, how advertiser and partner funding should work, which inventory should be monetized, how media and performance should be priced, and which teams should own customer experience, settlement, measurement, and sales.

The objective is not to apply a generic coupon framework. It is to define an operating model suited to the business’s customer relationship, transaction model, inventory, advertiser ecosystem, and measurement capabilities.

Build the right capabilities in the right order

Offer strategies can quickly become too broad. A business may attempt to solve customer loyalty, trade funding, merchant onboarding, sponsored placement, offsite distribution, settlement, card-linked offers, partner networks, and AI activation simultaneously.

Koddi can help distinguish what must be built to prove the initial business from what should be introduced later. The first phase may focus on a small number of offer types, a high-intent customer surface, a defined group of advertisers, separate incentive and media funding, and closed-loop reporting. Later phases can introduce automated advertiser intake, dynamic ranking, self-service, network distribution, advanced incrementality, and agent-compatible access. This sequencing reduces complexity while preserving the longer-term architecture.

Provide the enablement infrastructure

Koddi can provide the technology and operational infrastructure required to manage offers and commerce media together — including advertiser and partner intake, campaign management, offer configuration, targeting, eligibility, auction and decisioning, supply integrations, pacing, publisher controls, DSP connectivity, reporting normalization, and performance optimization.

Koddi can also help connect direct, managed-service, programmatic, and partner demand to the offer ecosystem while allowing the commerce operator to retain control over customer experience and commercial rules. Where a distributed offer network is appropriate, Koddi can support the coordination of demand, publisher inventory, targeting, permissions, reporting, and transaction outcomes across multiple participants.

The bottom line

Conclusion

The renewed importance of coupons and offers is not simply a response to a difficult economic cycle. It reflects a broader and more durable shift in consumer behavior.

Consumers are actively looking for better value. They are using more tools, more data, and increasingly AI to find it. Advertisers need accountable ways to convert demand, acquire customers, and prove incremental growth. Commerce operators possess the customer relationships, intent signals, inventory, and transaction data required to connect these needs.

The businesses that succeed will combine offers and commerce media while keeping their respective economics clear. They will treat offer inventory dynamically, rank toward total value, measure incrementality rather than redemption alone, and make offers available to both consumers and the AI systems increasingly helping them decide.

The future of offer monetization is not simply more discounts. It is a measurable exchange of value among consumers, advertisers, commerce operators, and the decision systems shaping what gets chosen.

Sources

  1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index Summary. June 2026.
  2. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Survey of Consumer Expectations. June 2026.
  3. Deloitte. 2026 Retail Industry Outlook.
  4. Deloitte. 2026 Consumer Products Outlook.
  5. Deloitte. 2026 Back-to-School Survey.
  6. NielsenIQ. AI shopping-tool usage data. May 2026.
  7. Koddi. The State of Agentic Commerce (Media). 2026.
  8. Koddi. What Agentic Commerce Means for Commerce Media.
  9. IAB. Guidelines for Incremental Measurement in Commerce Media.